Polls continue to show Tarkanian lead, gap narrows in challenge for Heller's seat

LAS VEGAS - There are still eight weeks before voters will hit the polls, but the Republican Senate Primary race is making headlines. A new poll that was released Friday has good news for both U.S. Senate challenger Danny Tarkanian and incumbent Senator Dean Heller.
    
The new poll by JMC Analytics shows a 6-point race in the U.S. Senate Primary between Tarkanian and Heller.  However, Tarkanian's lead has shrunk since the last poll commissioned in August. That poll had an 8-point spread.

Nevada Poll Results

Eight-five percent of the respondents in the latest poll are over the age of 50, and Tarkanian holds a lead of 1-3 points, depending on the end of the age spectrum.

For those under 50, the remaining 15 percent of the respondents, support for Tarkanian is greater than 2-to-1 over Heller.

Registered voters were used in the poll.  So, what significance does using a category have compared to polling likely voters?

There is a strong chance likely voters will go to the polls and vote as they responded.  Registered voters may or may not go to the polls.

When it comes to the latest poll numbers, if you're Tarkanian, you're happy with the lead, especially, when you have such numbers against an incumbent.  But if you're Heller, you're not too upset because the numbers are going your way as well.  The gap is closing, and the favorability rating is on the rise, so these are positives for Heller.

The new poll also shows that Heller is vulnerable, and Tarkanian believes he can capitalize from it.

Tarkanian has Breitbart.com's backing and can point to results in Alabama, where an anti-establishment Republican candidate won, even with President Trump endorsing his opponent.

So, even if Trump backs Heller, Tarkanian has to think he's really ahead in the race.

There are eight months until the primary, so that's a long time in election terms, so between now and then, anything can happen.

Politics NOW hosts Patrick Walker and Steve Sebelius break down the latest poll numbers:


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