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#NVElection: 8 News NOW poll shows Cortez Masto with slight lead over Heck

LAS VEGAS - The race for U.S. Senator Harry Reid's seat is a tight one with Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto showing a slight lead over Republican Rep. Joe Heck.

The 8 News NOW poll, done by JMC Analytics and Polling, shows 45 percent say they would vote for Masto if the election were held today, while 43 percent said they would vote for Heck. The gap between the two has narrowed from a previous poll done in mid October by 8 News NOW that showed Masto with a 5 point lead. The margin of error is 4 percent.

This poll of Nevada voters was conducted from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1.

Question 4: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you support? (Party affiliations of candidates mentioned)

                                                           CURRENT                    PREVIOUS POLL

  • Cortez Mastos                            45%                             40%
  • Heck                                           43%                             35%       
  • Jones                                          1%                                3%
  • Gumina                                     <1%                                2%
  • Sawyer                                      <1%                                1%
  • Williams                                     <1%                              <1%
  • None of the above                      3%                                 4%
  • Undecided (Not read)                  7%                               16%

Question 5: (Only if "undecided" is selected for the previous question) Given that you are undecided, which candidate are you leaning towards supporting? (Party affiliations of candidates mentioned)

                                                         CURRENT                      PREVIOUS POLL

  • Cortez Mastos                             45%                                41%
  • Heck                                            43%                                36%
  • Jones                                           1%                                   3%
  • Gumina                                       <1%                                  2%
  • Sawyer                                        <1%                                  1%
  • Williams                                      <1%                                 <1%
  • None of the above                       4%                                   5%
  • Undecided (Not read)                   6%                                  14%

Polling Methodlogy

For this poll, a sample of likely households for a live operator poll was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Nevada, and there were 600 completed responses to 10 poll questions. 66% of the phone numbers were landlines and 34% of the phone numbers were cell phones.
The survey was conducted October 28-November 1. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.0%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 66-16-6% white/Hispanic/black (2% were Asian and 11% were “other”), while the party registration of respondents was 42-38% Democratic/Republican (20% Independents). The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 21% from the 1st Congressional District, 11% from the 2nd Congressional District (“Cow Counties”), 17% from the 2nd Congressional District (Washoe County), 26% from the 3rd Congressional District, 22% from the 4th Congressional District (Clark County), and 3% from the 4th Congressional District (“Cow Counties”) (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis).

Click here for crosstabs information on the poll results.


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